Here’s an example of what I mean: let’s take one of the wackiest and most collectible of all vintage effects: the Ludwig Phase II Guitar Synthesizer (see sidebar). This ancient oddball was featured prominently in the “Hen’s Teeth” chapter of Analog Man’s Guide. Quite predictably, this fact alone gave a noticeable boost to its market value. Before the book, the going rate for these fell somewhere in the $800 to $1200 range, which was considered pretty high four or five years ago. Rest assured, if I could find a Ludwig Phase II for less than $800 now, I’d buy ten of them!
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| This later version of the Hi Fli has a “Growl” switch which is preferred by collectors Photo: Tom Hughes |
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While vintage effects prices have been continually on the rise, something else happened on Halloween of 2006 that skewed the market for the Ludwig pedal beyond any predictability. A Ludwig Phase II popped up on eBay, and over the course of the auction there were two determined and persistent potential buyers who kept throwing down one bid after another in a frantic effort to remain on top. The coveted item ended up fetching a whopping $6600! Not long afterwards a glut of these Ludwig pedals began to pop up on eBay, one after the other—suddenly not so rare. The word was out and Ludwig pedals came flying out of basements and garages around the globe. The first one pulled over $4000, the next came in at $3934, and a couple more followed fetching slightly less. This, when only six months prior a Ludwig on eBay that topped out at $1000 and the auction ended without meeting the reserve. It’s worth noting that the condition of the pedal in each auction seemed to matter little. I found this odd since in my experience, the Ludwig Phase II is one of the most inconsistent vintage effects out there, in terms of sonic quality and condition, and seems particularly susceptible to the ravages of time and abuse.
While vintage effects prices have been continually on the rise, something else happened on Halloween of 2006 that skewed the market for the Ludwig pedal beyond any predictability.
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The Ludwig does come up for sale every couple of months or so, but the final sale price each time seems to be determined only by who happens to want one that week and how badly they want it. To wit, here is a sampling of real end of auction eBay sale prices for the Ludwig Phase II: $3261 (Feb ‘07), $2111 (May ‘07), $1850 (Jul. ‘07), $1902 (Nov. ‘07), $1325 (Dec ‘07), $930 (Jan ‘08), $1450 (Mar. ‘08), $2195 (Apr. ‘08), $3315 (Aug. ‘08). It’s up, it’s down, it’s up again. See what I mean? It’s like telling a fly to sit still. How can a reasonably accurate value be reflected in an annual price guide?
It’s impossible to ignore the influence that a cultural and economic behemoth like eBay has had on the vintage and collectible market. As eBay first began its meteoric ascent, there were predictions that worldwide access to a virtual open flea market of this magnitude would signal the demise of high dollar vintage retailers. No doubt, the direct seller to buyer connection did level the playing field to an extent, and many people eventually began to view eBay’s end of auction prices as the final word in determining the true value of any given item. There is a certain logic and validity to this idea, provided there’s a stable and consistent market for the item in question. But as with the Ludwig syndrome, it only takes a couple of impulsive and illinformed buyers to distort predictability.
We alluded to this in the June ’08
Stomp School column, but it’s worth mentioning again because it’s become an all too familiar scenario—two eBay bidders with no apparent knowledge of market values or availability, dukeing it out with one another over a piece of gear like it’s the only one in the world, determined to win the pissing match that the auction has degenerated into. The final sale price often ends at double or even triple the price that half a dozen examples of the same pedal, of similar vintage and condition, were sold on eBay for in the past month. For some reason, the vintage effects market seems particularly susceptible to this type of consumer. So much for statistical probability.
Vintage Reissues
Of course, this discussion of vintage and collectible effects would not be complete without addressing the recent phenomenon of vintage effects reissues. For many years, the realm of vintage effects was minor niche consisting of a small yet rabid cult following of crazed fanatics (of which I proudly consider myself to belong). We did cover the vintage reissue topic such as it was in Analog Man’s Guide. At that time, the source of most vintage effects “reissues” was Dunlop Manufacturing, who owned the rights to the names Crybaby and Fuzz Face and, after several years of a fruitful licensing agreement, had acquired full rights to the MXR brand. We also covered the all too brief early-nineties reissue of the A/DA Flanger, and Ibanez had just come out with their TS- 808 Tube Screamer reissue. Well, it seemed inevitable that the growing interest would catch the attention of other major manufacturers. Over the last few years we’ve seen reissues of the Foxx Tone Machine (and several other original Foxx pedals), Fender Blender, the Ampeg Scrambler, the Vox Clyde McCoy wah, and the Ibanez Flying Pan.